Falcon’s View – Week ending 6 March 2026

Performance

• S&P 500: –2,02 %

• Nasdaq 100: –1,27 %

• My portfolio: -0,12 %

Market pulse

U.S. equities were driven primarily by an energy-and-geopolitics shock. The escalation of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and the resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil sharply higher, reigniting inflation fears and reducing confidence that the Federal Reserve would be able to ease policy soon. That pressure intensified after the February jobs report showed a 92,000 decline in payrolls and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%, shifting the market narrative toward stagflation risk: slower growth alongside higher energy costs. Strong ISM data and rising input-price measures had already pushed rate-cut expectations lower, while brief hopes of de-escalation and strong AI-linked earnings only provided temporary relief. The week therefore ended as a broad risk-off move, with cyclicals, banks, airlines, and small caps hit harder than mega-cap tech.

Crowd vs. price

Crowds are rotating out of most tech names and into defense and energy stocks. Also rotating out of US equities in general and more into emerging markets and Europe. That was however before the intensifying of the Iranian conflict, so this could very well change under this upcoming week. I will bee keeping watch closely.

Holdings & Watchlist Notes

CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD): +15.33%

CrowdStrike’s strength looks mostly company-led, not macro-led. The core driver was the earnings print and forward guide: growth held up, the outlook beat, ARR crossed a major milestone, and the 2024 outage drag was clearly becoming more manageable. The stock also benefited from a reversal of the late-February AI fear trade in cybersecurity. The M&A story helped, but the quarter and guidance were the main reason to own it in that week.

• Relative crowd interest: Trend: upwards. Momentum: neutral.