Falcon’s View – Week ending 27 March 2026
Performance
NASDAQ 100: -3.20%
S&P 500: -2.12%
STOXX Europe 600: +0.35%
EURO STOXX 50: +0.08%
OMXS30: -0.03%
My portfolio: –5,26%
Market pulse
Global equities were driven primarily by the Iran war’s disruption of Gulf energy flows, especially the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil sharply higher and reignited inflation fears. Markets quickly translated that shock into a more hawkish interest-rate outlook, lifting bond yields and compressing equity valuations, while conflicting headlines around U.S.-Iran diplomacy produced sharp but short-lived relief rallies. As the week progressed, weaker business surveys, softer consumer sentiment and OECD downgrades showed that the shock was already bleeding into growth, shifting the narrative from geopolitical noise to stagflation risk. The heaviest damage fell on tech-heavy U.S. indices, where renewed weakness in mega-cap tech and AI-linked shares amplified the selloff, while Europe proved relatively more resilient thanks to a less tech-concentrated sector mix and temporary support from banks, miners, travel and energy stocks when oil briefly eased.
Crowd vs. price
The geopolitical situation resulting from the Iran conflict and its ramifications continues to spark an exodus from almost all equities.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Exxon Mobil (XOM): +7.09%
ExxonMobil’s rise was driven first by the Iran-war oil shock and the disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, which Reuters said pushed Brent to average about $97 a barrel in March versus $69 in February. On Reuters’ estimate, that price move alone implied roughly $5.1 billion of extra March revenue for Exxon. Second, the market re-rated the earnings outlook for the integrated majors as the crude spike looked large enough to materially lift first-quarter profits. Third, investors rotated into energy as the broader equity market was being hit by higher oil, higher inflation risk and rising yields, making Exxon one of the few large-cap names whose near-term earnings were improving as the macro backdrop worsened.
• Relative crowd interest: Trend: upwards. Momentum: bullish.