Falcon’s View – Week ending 26 Sep 2025

Performance

• S&P 500: -0,16%

• Nasdaq 100: -0,34%

• My portfolio: -2,57% (USD) / -2,58% (SEK)

Market pulse

Powell’s tone on Tuesday was balanced – “no risk‑free path,” and not pre‑committing to fast cuts. Core PCE on Friday matched expectations, so no fresh hawkish shock. Energy and geopolitics raised inflation worries: crude jumped on Russia‑related supply headlines, which nudged inflation expectations higher and reduced odds of faster Fed easing.

Crypto

• De‑risking into Friday’s Core PCE: after last week’s cut, traders trimmed risk ahead of the next macro check; with equities fading Mon–Thu, crypto – a high‑beta growth proxy – fell harder.

• Leverage washout: perps were crowded long after the recent run; as prices slipped, forced liquidations (notably in SOL, ADA, DOGE) turned a drift lower into a cascade.

Crowd vs. price

Relative crowd interest showed unusual variation this week depending on the stock.

Holdings & Watchlist Notes: