Falcon’s View – Week ending 26 June 2026
Performance
S&P 500: −1.95%
NASDAQ 100: −4.24%
My portfolio: −4.26%
Market pulse
U.S. equities finished lower in a holiday-shortened trading window, with the NASDAQ-100 falling 4.24% and materially underperforming the S&P 500’s 1.95% decline. The main driver was a sharp unwind in the crowded AI and semiconductor trade. Investors moved from rewarding AI exposure to questioning the cost, financing, and timing of AI infrastructure returns. The pressure was most visible on 23 June, when the semiconductor index fell sharply as investors scrutinized debt-funded AI spending and priced in a more hawkish Federal Reserve path.
The selloff was not evenly spread across the market. High-valuation AI infrastructure names, semiconductors, and OpenAI-adjacent stocks were hit hardest, while healthcare, software, and some defensive or enterprise-technology names held up better. On 26 June, the S&P 500 ended only slightly lower, but AI-related chip stocks sold off again, and Reuters reported that the chip index fell 5.3% that day and 7.9% for the week. Healthcare was one of the few clear havens, helped by strong moves in names such as Eli Lilly and Moderna.
The result was a sharp reversal from the prior week’s risk-on tape. Last week, investors rewarded AI scarcity and memory pricing power; this week, they punished capital intensity, debt financing, and long-duration AI payoffs. The NASDAQ-100 underperformed because it has heavier exposure to mega-cap technology, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure. The S&P 500 held up better because defensive sectors and healthcare cushioned the broader index.
Crowd vs. price
Investor attention remained concentrated in AI, but price action became far less forgiving. The market stopped treating all AI exposure as positive and started separating companies with immediate earnings power from companies whose AI upside depends on massive upfront spending, debt financing, and future monetization.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Eli Lilly (LLY)
+9.97%
Eli Lilly was one of the strongest holdings in the portfolio, rising almost 10% as investors rotated into healthcare and rewarded company-specific catalysts. The biggest driver was renewed confidence in Lilly’s obesity-drug franchise after the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program improved the access story for drugs such as Zepbound and Foundayo. The rally was reinforced by positive European regulatory news: Lilly announced that the EMA’s CHMP recommended Jaypirca for adults with chronic lymphocytic leukemia across all lines of therapy. The broader market backdrop also helped, because healthcare became a haven as investors moved out of crowded technology and semiconductor names. The clean read is that Lilly went up because investors saw both defensive growth and renewed upside in its GLP-1 pipeline.