Falcon’s View – Week ending 20 Feb 2026
Performance
• S&P 500: +1,07 %
• Nasdaq 100: +1,13 %
• My portfolio: +0,9 % (USD) / +2,4 % (SEK)
Market pulse
U.S. equities were driven primarily by a trade-policy shock and a cross‑current of growth/inflation signals: on Feb. 20, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs (a 6–3 decision), and Trump immediately announced a temporary 10% global tariff for 150 days, which investors largely read as less severe than feared and as a near‑term reduction in uncertainty for tariff‑exposed sectors. Macro data was mixed the same day–Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% (vs. 3.0% expected) with the prior government shutdown cited as a major drag, while inflation firmed late in 2025 with core PCE up 0.4% m/m and 3.0% y/y in December, reinforcing the idea the Fed would stay cautious on cuts. Within equities, AI and mega‑cap tech remained the tape’s lever: on Feb. 18, sentiment improved and stocks rose as Nvidia said it had signed a multi‑year deal to sell Meta “millions” of current and future AI chips, helping stabilize the broader AI complex after valuation/disruption jitters. Risk appetite wobbled again on Feb. 19 as private‑equity/alt‑manager stocks sold off after Blue Owl said it would sell $1.4B in assets and freeze redemptions at a fund, while Walmart’s conservative FY2027 outlook and Apple weakness weighed on the index; Deere’s raised profit forecast provided an offset, and energy outperformed as crude rose on heightened U.S.–Iran conflict fears. Underneath it all, rate expectations stayed a key constraint: the Feb. 18 Fed minutes showed policymakers were near‑unanimous about holding rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but split on what comes next (including “several” open to hikes if inflation stays elevated), keeping markets sensitive to each incremental inflation/growth headline.
Crowd vs. price
Market volatility continues to cause volatility in relative investor interest.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Amazon.com (AMZN): +5.7%
The move was driven primarily by (1) a tariff-relief rally after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down Trump-era global tariffs, lifting tariff-sensitive consumer stocks including Amazon, and (2) a renewed bid for mega-cap AI-linked technology shares, which supported Amazon alongside other large platform names. The strength also reflected a rebound from the earlier-February drawdown tied to investor concerns about Amazon’s elevated 2026 AI-related capex plans, with lighter holiday-week volume likely magnifying the upside.
• Relative crowd interest: Trend: downwards. Momentum: bullish.