Nasdaq 100: +0.65%
S&P 500: −0.27%
My portfolio: +0.69%
Market pulse
American equities finished a volatile week with mixed results. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.65%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.27%. AI investment continued to support technology shares, but rising Treasury yields and uncertainty surrounding Iran and oil supplies weighed on the broader market. Softer inflation and employment figures provided relief, culminating in Friday’s rebound.
AI infrastructure remained the strongest source of optimism. Anthropic’s IPO disclosures outlined $518 billion in computing and infrastructure commitments over coming years, reinforcing expectations for sustained semiconductor demand. ASML benefited from the resulting rally in European chip stocks. Micron’s strong results and revenue outlook added support on Thursday, while Friday’s reports that Broadcom was arranging approximately $60 billion in financing for customers’ AI-chip purchases strengthened expectations for demand flowing through TSMC’s factories.
Oil and diplomacy repeatedly interrupted that optimism. Trump’s rejection of an Iranian peace proposal helped trigger Monday’s selloff, as investors reassessed the prospects for easing disruption in the Middle East. Shipping risks and uncertain negotiations kept energy costs central to the inflation outlook. Treasury yields remained under pressure, with the ten-year yield reaching approximately 5.34% on Thursday, its highest level since 2002.
Economic data nevertheless reduced expectations of an immediate further increase in interest rates. Wednesday’s inflation figures were softer than expected, while Friday’s employment report showed just 29,000 additional jobs in September and downward revisions to previous months. The weaker hiring figures reduced expectations of an October Fed hike and supported a strong finish for equities. Relief in the bond market proved less durable, leaving high borrowing costs as an unresolved challenge.
Crowd vs. price
The week highlighted investors’ willingness to price substantial future AI demand before it becomes recognised revenue. Anthropic’s spending commitments and Broadcom’s proposed financing supported semiconductor shares by strengthening expectations for future orders. SpaceX’s successful launches offered a more immediate demonstration of execution. Elsewhere, Netflix’s engagement concerns and Alibaba’s heavy investment requirements showed that enthusiasm for growth remained selective. Investors continued to reward expansion, but the route from spending and adoption to profits mattered increasingly as bond yields rose.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
ASML: +8.56%
ASML’s Amsterdam-listed shares rose as Anthropic’s computing commitments reinforced confidence in sustained AI infrastructure investment. Reports of potential additional TSMC capacity provided further support for expectations of future chipmaking-equipment demand, although the expansion details and resulting orders remained unconfirmed. Tuesday’s semiconductor rally supplied a substantial part of the advance. Friday’s broader technology gains added momentum as weaker U.S. employment data reduced expectations of an imminent Fed rate increase.