Falcon’s View – Week ending 2 April 2026
Performance
NASDAQ-100: +3.95%
S&P 500: +3.36%
STOXX Europe 600: +3.71%
EURO STOXX 50: +3.40%
OMXS30: +3.55%
My portfolio: +4,17%
Market pulse
Global equities rebounded over the March 27-April 2 window mainly because investors began to price in a possible off-ramp in the Iran conflict and, with it, a lower probability of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That was enough to ease oil and inflation fears and trigger a relief rally across risk assets, especially in technology, banks, airlines, and other cyclical sectors. The move remained fragile, however, because every renewed threat of escalation immediately pushed crude higher and checked equity gains. Secondary support came from central-bank messaging and macro data that pointed to slower growth but not an outright break: Powell stayed in wait-and-see mode, U.S. labor and manufacturing data were resilient enough, and euro-area data were mixed rather than catastrophic. In practical terms, the market spent the week pricing one master variable above all others: whether the war was moving toward de-escalation or toward a longer, inflationary energy shock
Crowd vs. price
Extreme volatility in crowd movement continues.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Intel Corp (INTC): +16.81%
Intel’s 16.8% rally from March 27 to April 2 was driven by a combination of macro relief and a major company-specific catalyst. The first leg came from a broad semiconductor rebound as hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict eased fears of a prolonged oil shock and renewed inflation pressure. The bigger and more durable leg came on April 1, when Intel announced it would repurchase Apollo’s 49% stake in the Fab 34 Ireland joint venture for $14.2 billion. Investors took that move as evidence of a stronger balance sheet, better capital discipline, and rising confidence in Intel’s manufacturing strategy, especially because Fab 34 is a key production site for Core Ultra and Xeon processors and because demand for Intel’s data-center CPUs has been improving alongside AI inference workloads. In practice, the market was repricing Intel as a more credible turnaround story with tighter control over strategically important capacity.
• Relative crowd interest: Trend: upwards. Momentum: bullish.