Falcon’s View - Week ending 17 October 2025
Performance
• S&P 500: 1,70%
• Nasdaq 100: 2,44%
• My portfolio: −1,77% (USD) / −1,78% (SEK)
Market pulse
Risk appetite improved after President Trump softened tariff rhetoric and called extra China tariffs “not sustainable,” lifting equities to start the week. Semis and AI rallied on fresh catalysts: OpenAI–Broadcom’s 10 GW custom‑chip plan and TSMC’s record results with a raised outlook on very strong AI demand. Fed speakers kept the easing path alive, with Chair Powell balanced and Gov Waller explicitly supportive of more cuts given softer labor data. Big banks beat, and constructive commentary on dealmaking and trading added to the bid. Net result: a broad risk‑on week in indexes even as some individual exposures lagged.
Crypto
Crypto took a clear hit. From NY open Fri 10/10 to NY close Fri 10/17, Bitcoin, Ether and most large altcoins finished meaningfully lower. The slide began Friday night with a record wave of forced liquidations in futures that cascaded prices lower. Through the week, U.S. spot‑bitcoin ETFs saw flat‑to‑negative net flows and derivatives traders kept cutting risk. With no steady buyer under the market, every bounce was sold, so crypto ended the week decisively down despite the equity rally.
Crowd vs. price
Most names on my list held stable or up in relative invester interest. Notable exception: Netflix saw a sharp decline in relative interest. Despite crypto price weakness, Bitcoin, Ether and Solana rose in relative interest; others were stable.