Falcon’s View – Week ending 17 April 2026
Performance
NASDAQ 100: +6.20%
S&P 500: +4.54%
My portfolio: +5,92%
Market pulse
U.S. equities rallied strongly between the close of Friday, April 10 and the close of Friday, April 17, driven mainly by a sharp reduction in Middle East risk. Investor sentiment improved as hopes grew for progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open to commercial shipping, triggering a steep fall in oil prices and easing fears that an energy shock would reignite inflation or force the Federal Reserve to stay tighter for longer. The rally was reinforced by a better-than-feared start to earnings season, especially in banks and large-cap technology, while renewed appetite for AI, software and semiconductor names helped the Nasdaq outperform the broader market. Falling oil also created a clear sector rotation: energy stocks lagged, while airlines, cruise operators, industrials and consumer-discretionary shares benefited from lower fuel-cost expectations. Finally, positioning amplified the move, as investors who had previously reduced U.S. equity exposure moved back into American stocks on the view that U.S. earnings and the technology sector remained more resilient than other major markets.
Crowd vs. price
Relative crowd interest surged in many of the names on my list as market recovered.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Microsoft (MSFT): +14%
Microsoft’s rally was driven less by a single earnings event and more by a sharp reset in investor sentiment toward its AI and cloud story. A positive KeyBanc survey eased concerns around Azure growth and Copilot adoption, showing stronger enterprise demand than investors had feared, while the broader market backdrop also turned supportive as easing Middle East tensions, falling oil prices and lower inflation fears revived appetite for mega-cap technology stocks. The move was amplified by Microsoft’s prior de-rating, after months of pressure over AI capital spending, OpenAI concentration risk and fears that new AI tools could disrupt its core software business. Additional news around AI compute capacity and recent Copilot product upgrades reinforced the view that Microsoft still has a credible route to converting heavy AI investment into durable cloud and software revenue.
• Relative crowd interest: Trend: upwards. Momentum: bullish.