Falcon’s View – Week ending 15 May 2026
Note: Resent due to a technical error with Substack
Performance
NASDAQ 100: −0.38%
S&P 500: +0.13%
My portfolio: +2,02%
Market pulse
Between the May 8 and May 15 closes, U.S. equities were broadly flat but volatile: the S&P 500 rose 0.13%, while the NASDAQ-100 fell 0.38%. The main story was a tug-of-war between continued optimism around AI, semiconductors, mega-cap technology, strong Q1 earnings, and equity inflows on one side, and a late-week macro shock on the other. That shock was driven by rising oil prices linked to the Iran/Hormuz crisis, hotter inflation data, and a sharp move higher in Treasury yields, which reduced appetite for richly valued growth stocks. U.S.–China summit headlines and resilient economic data added mixed signals: they supported confidence in corporate demand but also reinforced concerns that the Federal Reserve would have less room to cut rates. Overall, the week’s modest index moves masked a clear underlying rotation: AI and earnings momentum pushed markets to fresh highs midweek, only to be erased by inflation and rate fears by Friday.
Crowd vs. price
Despite jitters in the market over inflation and rate-hike fears, relative investor interest remains robust.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Nvidia (NVDA): +4.70%
NVIDIA rose 4.70% between May 8 and May 15, driven primarily by renewed optimism about access to China and continued demand for AI infrastructure. The strongest catalyst was news that the U.S. had cleared selected Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips, which reduced the export-control overhang and helped push the stock sharply higher on May 14. That move was reinforced by Jensen Huang’s presence around the Trump–Xi Beijing summit, strong expectations ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings, record prior-quarter data-center results, and broader investor inflows into technology and semiconductor funds. Supply-chain signals also supported the rally, with Foxconn pointing to strong AI server demand and rising cloud-provider capex. NVIDIA’s gain was partly reduced by Friday’s broader selloff in growth stocks as inflation fears and Treasury yields rose, but the company-specific China and AI-demand catalysts were strong enough for the stock to end the period comfortably positive.