Falcon’s View – Week ending 13 March 2026

Performance

• S&P 500: –1,6 %

• Nasdaq 100: –1,06 %

• My portfolio: +4,07 %

Market pulse

U.S. and European equities were driven primarily by an externally generated energy shock rather than by ordinary macro data. The escalation of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil sharply higher, revived inflation fears, and forced markets to reprice central-bank expectations toward fewer Fed cuts and renewed ECB tightening risk. Temporary de-escalation headlines produced a brief relief rally, but that was reversed as tanker attacks and the continued Hormuz disruption pointed to a more persistent supply shock. U.S. equities then faced an added stagflation problem as GDP, real spending, and consumer sentiment weakened while inflation risk stayed elevated, whereas European equities were more sensitive because the region is more energy-import dependent and growth is more fragile. The result was broad pressure on banks, industrials, travel, miners, and other cyclicals, while energy was the main relative outperformer.

Crowd vs. price

Crowds are still rotating out of most tech names and into defense and energy stocks.

Holdings & Watchlist Notes

Micron Technology (MU): +15.08%.

Micron’s gain over the week appears to have been driven mainly by stock-specific AI-memory catalysts overwhelming an otherwise weak market backdrop. The most important trigger was Applied Materials’ March 10 partnership announcement, which validated Micron’s role in next-generation DRAM, HBM and NAND development. That landed in a market already pricing tight memory supply, rising AI-driven capex and another potentially strong Micron earnings print due on March 18, allowing the stock to outperform even as higher oil prices and inflation fears pressured broader equities.

• Relative crowd interest: Trend: upwards. Momentum: neutral.