Falcon’s View – Week ending 12 June 2026
Performance
S&P 500: +0.65%
NASDAQ 100: +2.34%
My portfolio: –0,74%
Market pulse
Between the June 5 and June 12 closes, U.S. equities finished higher despite a sharp midweek drawdown. The NASDAQ-100 gained 2.34%, materially outperforming the S&P 500’s 0.65% gain, because the strongest rebounds were concentrated in AI, semiconductors, memory, and server-CPU names. The dominant macro driver was the interaction between U.S.–Iran war risk, oil prices, inflation, and Fed expectations. Escalation headlines and hotter inflation data pressured stocks around June 10, while the market rebounded sharply after Trump called off planned strikes, oil prices fell, and investors began pricing lower geopolitical and inflation risk. Underneath the index move, the tape remained highly selective: Intel, Micron, and Arm were rewarded as AI-infrastructure beneficiaries, while Super Micro Computer, Adobe, and Oracle were punished where AI growth came with dilution, margin pressure, capex intensity, or weaker monetization. The move was not a rejection of AI infrastructure; it was a sharper sorting of winners and losers inside the AI trade.
Crowd vs. price
Investor attention remained concentrated in AI, but the market became more discriminating. The winners were companies where investors saw scarcity, validation, or improving strategic positioning.
Holdings & Watchlist Notes
Intel — INTC:
+25.61%
Intel was the strongest performer of the period, rising 25.61% from the June 5 close to the June 12 close. The main catalyst was a reported Google order for more than 3 million TPUs to be manufactured by Intel in 2028, which gave investors a concrete hyperscaler datapoint for Intel Foundry. That was followed by Bank of America’s rare double upgrade from Underperform to Buy and a price-target increase to $135, reinforcing the idea that Intel could benefit from both AI server CPU demand and the industry’s need for advanced manufacturing capacity outside TSMC. The rally was amplified by Intel’s depressed starting point after the previous semiconductor rout. The clean interpretation is that Intel was re-rated as a potential AI-infrastructure and foundry comeback story, though the rally still carries execution risk because much of the enthusiasm rests on future customer wins rather than near-term revenue.