Falcon’s View – Week ending 10 July 2026

S&P 500: +1.23%
NASDAQ 100: +1.69%
My portfolio: +0.53%

Market pulse

U.S. equities finished the period higher, with technology regaining market leadership despite considerable volatility beneath the index surface. Unlike the previous period, the technology-heavy NASDAQ 100 outperformed the broader market.

The most important market driver was the continuing debate over AI investment and semiconductor valuations. The period began with a strong rebound in AI-related shares, helped by Broadcom’s extended supply relationship with Apple. That recovery was interrupted on 7 July, when Samsung’s exceptionally strong results failed to meet the market’s elevated expectations. This triggered another sharp semiconductor selloff as investors questioned whether the enormous amount of capital being invested in AI infrastructure would generate sufficient returns.

The AI trade subsequently recovered. Nvidia benefited from reports that China could permit selected domestic AI companies to purchase limited quantities of its H200 processors. Broadcom continued to receive support from its Apple relationship, while Micron rebounded after presenting plans for more than $250 billion of U.S. investment through 2035. SK Hynix’s successful U.S. listing and Meta’s strong rally further reinforced demand for selected AI-related companies toward the end of the period.

Geopolitical and monetary-policy concerns nevertheless constrained the rally. Renewed tension between the United States and Iran pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher, increasing the risk that energy costs could keep inflation elevated. The FOMC minutes also showed that Federal Reserve officials remained concerned about inflation, preventing investors from fully dismissing the possibility of another rate increase.

The market’s internal message was therefore mixed but constructive. Investors were still prepared to buy AI exposure, but only where there was visible evidence of demand, monetization or strategic value. Companies perceived as highly valued, excessively crowded or dependent on future expectations were vulnerable to severe corrections.

Crowd vs. price

Investor attention remained concentrated in AI, but became increasingly selective. The market moved sharply between valuation anxiety and renewed confidence in structural AI demand.

The market rewarded companies with concrete evidence of AI demand, differentiated technology, recurring revenue or identifiable monetization opportunities. It punished companies whose valuations appeared to require near-perfect execution or whose recent rallies had already incorporated much of the expected future growth. This explains how several prominent AI-related companies could move in opposite directions during the same period.

Holdings & Watchlist Notes

Meta Platforms (META)

+14.81%

Meta was the strongest-performing holding over the period. The rally was supported by renewed confidence in the company’s ability to convert its enormous AI investment into both product improvements and additional revenue opportunities. Investors responded positively to reports that Meta could rent out surplus computing capacity, reducing concerns that its infrastructure spending would remain entirely dependent on advertising returns.

The company also benefited from enthusiasm around its expanding AI capacity, custom-chip development and generative-AI products. These developments encouraged investors to view Meta’s capital expenditure as a potentially monetizable technological asset rather than simply a cost burden. The clean read is that Meta rose because the market became more confident that its AI investment could strengthen its core platforms while also creating new revenue streams.